Good morning!
“It is difficult to predict the future, but it is my feeling that by 2001 AD we will have machines which can walk as well, see as well, and think as well as we do.”
-- Claude Shannon
It is Monday 26th October 2026. No show today; we are back live Wednesday, October 28th at 9 AM PT with Debo Olaosebikan.
Top stories
OpenAI’s red-team agents found leaks in nearly every perimeter service
OpenAI’s own tests show frontier agents finding escape routes its engineers missed, so containment now has to cover shared hardware, not just sandboxes.
OpenAI gave teams of frontier-model agents control of a host machine and asked them to reach the live internet. They found flaws in almost every remaining connection, including metrics, logging and authentication services.
Agents in separate VMs also swapped synthetic secrets without networks or shared files, using processor cache timing, the method behind Spectre and Meltdown, plus channels through shared storage and CPU contention.
These were red-team runs that assumed a VM was already compromised, not a live escape. Still, OpenAI had already narrowed internet access after the Hugging Face incident, and agents got through anyway.
Source: Andrew Curran on X, quoting OpenAI
Musk says debt markets have closed on neoclouds
Musk’s verdict on GPU lenders is also a pitch: it casts his investment-grade SpaceX as the safe borrower while rivals scramble for capital.
Musk said debt markets have almost entirely cut off firms without substantial revenue beyond AI data centers, citing SpaceX’s $40B GPU debt and predicting most of the 200+ neoclouds will die or consolidate.
Independent signs of stress are real: this week brought neocloud stock slumps, pulled IPOs including Solidigm’s, and widening credit default swap spreads heading into hyperscaler earnings.
The squeeze may not hit everyone equally. One neolab told Yuchen Jin that H100, B200 and B300 rental prices have risen 2–3x, so capacity locked in early can be resold at a profit.
Sources: Elon Musk on X · CNBC · Yuchen Jin on X
Anthropic files publicly to list on Nasdaq
The public filing puts hard numbers on frontier-lab economics, and the losses dwarf the revenue.
Anthropic filed an S-1 with the SEC to list its shares on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, moving its IPO plans into public view.
The prospectus reports $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026 against an $80.7 billion net loss over the same period.
Offering price and share count remain undetermined, so the valuation is still open. Later amendments will show how Anthropic asks public investors to price a loss roughly five times revenue.
Source: Anthropic
Clip of the Day
Cambrian founder Lonis Hamaili, whose $70M fund invests in AI supply chains, explains why it bans margin:
“We’re not doing any margin.”
His cofounder got his dad to borrow $100,000 against the house, then turned it into about $14 million.
But Cambrian’s fund documents prohibit margin leverage. Confidence about AI’s direction doesn’t mean confidence about the path:
“We feel very confident about the overall arc of AI, the rough timelines, and we are not at all confident about any quarter-to-quarter developments.”
He points to Nvidia’s 15-fold gain over four years alongside drawdowns of 40–60%. Borrowing to hold a winning stock can still leave an investor wiped out along the way.
“Our LPs generally want to be rich in many worlds, not just a trillionaire in one world.”
@_Lonis_
Lonis Hamaili · Managing Partner, Cambrian · 39:54
Headlines
TechCrunch AI: AI delivers ‘zero financial payoff’ to most companies, Apollo economist says
The Information: Stripe’s AI Shopping Lead Puts Card Giants on Edge
The Information: Data Center Late Fees Hit $5 Million or More Per Day, Spawning New Insurance
Anthropic and UK AI Security Institute publish analyses of Mythos 5 cyber-test incident
— Cue 🟠
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